Current Situation
- XAU/USD traded in a range over the past ten days and closed at 2633 on 8-12-2024.
- Retail traders favor buying in this area, and the order flow shows stronger buying pressure.
- On the daily timeframe, gold trades within a broader range.
Technical Analysis Expectations for 2025
This analysis provides a long-term outlook for XAU/USD in 2025. Avoid using it for short-term trades.
The current order flow and common mistakes of retail traders suggest XAU/USD will likely rise in 2025. However, the movement might not be as smooth as most people expect.
XAU/USD vs. Bitcoin
Gold often leaves many traders behind, causing cognitive and analytical errors.
The growing interest in Bitcoin, a perceived competitor to gold, influences gold’s movements. Gold seems to confirm this rising interest rather than challenge it.
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD remains range-bound and uncertain, trapped in a small range. This analysis divides the outlook into two scenarios:
1. Ideal Movement
A dotted line highlights this movement. If this scenario occurs, it increases confidence in buying opportunities. Look for the Ideal Buy Zone to ensure favorable technical conditions for entry.
2. Definite Movement of XAU/USD in 2025
Gold is expected to break the 2780 USD ceiling in 2025, even if the ideal conditions do not materialize. The primary order flow favors buying, driven by political conflicts and wars across continents.
Final Words
Both scenarios suggest a bullish outlook for XAU/USD. Wait for the right buying opportunity. The heavy buying pressure in the overall order flow supports a positive and upward forecast for gold.
XAU/USD FAQS
XAU/USD represents the price of one troy ounce of gold quoted in US dollars. It is a widely traded commodity pair in the forex and precious metals market.
News impacting XAU/USD includes Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports, inflation data (CPI), geopolitical tensions, and significant economic developments. These events influence gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset or hedge against inflation. For instance, rising inflation or lower interest rates often boost gold prices, while strong U.S. economic data typically strengthens the dollar, pressuring gold.
Economic data influences XAU/USD by affecting gold’s appeal and the U.S. dollar’s strength. Positive U.S. data strengthens the dollar, pressuring gold prices, while weak data or rising inflation boosts gold as a safe-haven or inflation hedge.
To trade XAU/USD, analyze gold’s trends, consider economic data, use technical and fundamental analysis, choose a reliable Forex broker, set stop-loss orders, and manage risks effectively while monitoring global market conditions.
