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Just as other prices in the economy are determined by the interaction of buyers and sellers, exchange rates are determined by the interaction of the households, firms, and financial institutions that buy and sell foreign currencies to make international payments.
— Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, and Marc Melitz
International Economics: Theory and Policy (2018)
In efficient markets, prices fully reflect available information.
— Eugene F. Fama
Foundations of Finance (1976)
“It was never my thinking that made the big money. It was my sitting.”
— Reminiscences of a Stock Operator — Edwin Lefèvre
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
— John Maynard Keynes, Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Vol. 9
Analyzing previous data is not a guaranteed safeguard, but it provides insights that we must consider in decision-making. This article is dedicated to this purpose: